War Vs Peace Unit Update Report #8
War Vs Peace Unit Update Report #8
4 weeks ago
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The Last 21 Years: Year (2)016
Some years are more memorable than others: the terror attacks of 2001, the Iraq invasion of 2003, Hurricane Katrina in 2005, the birth of the smartphone era in 2007, the financial crisis of 2008, the ‘Arab Spring’ in 2011, the annexation of Crimea and the war in the Donbas in 2014. And although we might not have thought so at first, 2016 would turn out to be another “one of those years”!
1 month ago
The Last 21 Years: Year (2)015
2015 was the year of the European Migrant Crisis, when makeshift refugee camps in Greek Islands off the coast of Turkey began filling up with families (and young men) fleeing the ongoing Syrian Civil War...
2 months ago
Jagiellonian Policy in the 21st Century
It is now 100 years since the signing of the peace treaty in Riga, which ended Poland’s war in the east with Soviet Russia and established relations in our part of the world for the following 20 years...
2 months ago
Turkey’s Military and Technological Sovereignty: The Path to Great Power Status. Part 2
Turkey’s drive for military technological independence has shown tremendous results...
2 months ago
The Last 21 Years: Year (2)009
The phrase “up in the air” perfectly captures the world at the beginning of 2009 (and, arguably, ever since)...
4 months ago
Jacek Bartosiak and Velina Tchakarova debate the great power competition in Eurasia (Video)
Jacek Bartosiak and Velina Tchakarova debate the great power competition in Eurasia.
4 months ago
British-Ukrainian military cooperation as a part of London’s Post-Brexit Strategy. Part 2
However, what were truly revolutionary and historic were the documents signed recently between London and Kiev. The Political, Free Trade and Strategic Partnership Agreement signed on 8th October 2020 in London during the official visit of the Ukrainian President to the UK...
4 months ago
The Last 21 Years: Year (2)001
On 21st June 2001, a train set off from Yandi in the arid upland interior of Western Australia to the Port of Port Hedland 275 km away on the Indian Ocean...
6 months ago
Beyond the Post-Cold War Era
Between 1989 and 1991, the strategic map of Eurasia altered dramatically as broad swathes of territory reopened to international markets after a long period of enclosure behind communist walls...
6 months ago
From Sagres to Boca Chica. From the V2 rocket to combat stations at the libration points. Part 1
Movement is an exchange. Exchange requires money. Exchange and money are economics. Movement, exchange and money require communication. All this requires innovations in connectivity and there are benefits to be reaped...
6 months ago
The Last 21 Years: Year (2)000
The 21st century didn’t begin officially until 1st Jan 2001 but in the popular imagination, 2000 represented a new beginning: a new century, a new millennium. The collapse of the Soviet Union was now an increasingly distant point in the rear-view mirror...
6 months ago
“Our Middle East. Notes of the Soviet Ambassador to Egypt and Iran” by Vladimir Mikhailovich Vinogradov
The book which I would like to present has historical importance for those who are interested in the revolutionary events in Iran between the three historical periods of this ancient country...
6 months ago
Jacek Bartosiak talks to Brandon Weichert on his book “Winning Space” (Podcast)
Jacek Bartosiak talks to Brandon Weichert on his book “Winning Space” and possibility of the coming US-China war and why space will matter most now...
6 months ago
Nuclear Strategy. Early years and the chaos of the first nuclear age. Part I
Before August 6, 1945, Bernard Brodie's future seemed more or less stable; the war in Europe was over; the war in the Pacific would end sooner or later, probably as a result of the long and bloody campaign on the Japanese islands...
6 months ago
Crushing the Niemen bastion. Part 2
Working in a dispersed manner and with exposed flanks means that officers of the combat forces should be educated differently...
7 months ago
Jacek Bartosiak talks to Everett Dolman on US Space Force (Podcast)
Jacek Bartosiak talks to Everett Dolman on US Space Force, its mission and future, on Artemis program of moon exploration, and on US-China growing competition in space...
7 months ago
Crushing the Niemen bastion. Part I
You could say that almost everything comes down to the Niemen. A river that is ubiquitous in Polish history, culture and literature. Also, of course, in the history of wars in our part of the world. When it comes to a possible war in defence of the Baltic states, it is no different.
7 months ago
The Theaters of Greco-Turkish War: a geostrategic projection. Part V
During the Cold War, Washington needed these two countries in order to contain the Soviets’ drive in the south, but since the end of the Cold War and the elimination of the “Russian threat”, all that’s left is the direct territorial, religious and military contradictions between Greece and Turkey...
7 months ago
Strategic Assessment of Drones Warfare in the Nagorno-Karabakh
It is not a sci-fi movie anymore: the war of the drone is reality and it is happening now...
7 months ago
When the Chinese go to war. Part Two
And what will China propose now, when tensions escalate in relations between the great powers, when there is open talk of a "new cold war" which does not even rule out the prospect of a hot war?
7 months ago
The Theaters of Greco-Turkish War: a geostrategic projection. Part IV
The Military Balance 2020 provides the following information regarding the military forces of Turkey and Greece. In 2019, Turkey possessed the biggest army in Europe with 355,200 active military personnel and 378,700 reserves...
7 months ago
The Theaters of Greco-Turkish War: a geostrategic projection. Part III
The Cilicia war theater existed during the Franco-Turkish War (1918-1921). In Turkish military historiography, it is known as the “southern front.”
7 months ago
When the Chinese go to war. Part I
The geopolitical and geostrategic pause initiated after the collapse of the USSR has apparently ended. First, after the crisis of 2008, the world economic and trade order shuddered...
7 months ago
The Theaters of Greco-Turkish War: a geostrategic projection. Part II
The Megisti (Kastellorizo) theater of operation is the most interesting and the most attractive island to Turkey...
7 months ago
The Theaters of Greco-Turkish War: a geostrategic projection. Part I
Turkey is changing its geopolitical posture in the region and her strategy is omnidirectional. For the last five years, Turkey has been very busy with the military conflicts in Syria and Iraq, but the situation is slowly evolving into one that is stable and manageable for Turkey...
7 months ago
Belarus and Czechoslovakia
This summer was influenced by reports from Belarus, where not only the fate of this country is being decided, but also the security status of the entire Intermarium region, including Poland...
7 months ago
Of democracies, autocracies and nukes (Podcast)
Professor Matthew Kroenig and Albert Świdziński discuss the China-US conflict through the lens of systems of governance, Russian doctrine of escalate to de-escalate, and the future of China's nuclear strategy...
8 months ago
Decoupling Poland-Germany. Part 2
What will come of the lack of cooperation in the consolidation of the European Union and a clear pro-American orientation in the face of tensions on the Brussels-Washington line?
8 months ago
Strategy&Future – „Project 2030″
Strategy&Future is launching a foresight analysis titled "Project 2030" concerning prospective security crises that would bear on Poland's security...
8 months ago
Decoupling Poland-Germany. Part 1
Since joining NATO and the EU, Poland has based its foreign policy on its two most important partners - Germany in economic terms and the US in the military field...
8 months ago
Romania: Poland’s natural, underestimated ally
„ [..] And the Pole must stay on this land, so that Polish tears and Polish blood will not be wasted, because this land is poured with Polish blood to defend it…”
8 months ago
Quo vadis SOF?
The September 2001 attacks on the World Trade Center changed the course of history. It began a global war on terrorism, which shook new life into Special Forces and redefined their character...
8 months ago
The Littorals of the Great Cosmic Ocean. Terra’s Orbits
As I write these words, the number of people who have traveled in space since the beginning of our planet has not exceeded 600. Not too many...
8 months ago
Makhmut Gareev “My last war (Afghanistan without Soviet troops)”
This book sheds light on the Soviet Union’s strategic convulsions in Afghanistan when the country almost collapsed but still by inertia was trying to behave as a Superpower with geopolitical commitments.
8 months ago
BELARUS THE BELLIGERENT
On August 9, Belarus held it’s 6th presidential election. Shockingly – shockingly! – according to official estimates and exit polls, this was yet another resounding victory by the country's long-standing strongman leader, Alexander Lukashenka.
9 months ago
August 2020. Belarus – a turning point for Poland
We have a serious crisis in Belarus. The basic facts we in general know. It is much more difficult to discern the real, structural forces...
9 months ago
Russell Grenfell’s Sea Power (1940)
In the far southwestern corner of England, overlooking the blue Atlantic and the green rolling hills of Penwith, there is a village of tiny grey stone cottages...
9 months ago
Turkey’s New Global Posture: Grand Strategy and Geopolitical Imperatives. Part III
We’ve seen changes in U.S. foreign policy - the geopolitical pivot to the Pacific - and the U.S. needs someone who is able to keep an eye on the Greater Middle East through an American lens...
9 months ago
Intermarium Weekly 12-18.08.2020
“If you destroy the country’s first President, this will be the beginning of the end - you will always be on your knees.” Alexander Lukashenko still seeks to frame himself as a guarantor of national independence and sovereignty...
9 months ago
The Coming Pacific War. Part 7. War Itself
A significant document on the strategic and conceptual games played regarding the conflict between the United States and China is the report produced in September 2015 by the RAND Corporation...
9 months ago
Turkey and Greece: Escalation in the Aegean
The Baltic-Eastern Mediterranean zone which divides the European peninsula from the rest of Eurasia is becoming dangerously unstable. Last week there were reports that the row between Ankara and Athens had evolved into a more aggressive stage...
9 months ago
Understanding Jean-Jacques Rousseau’s “The Social Contract” and other essays in XXI century
Rousseau’s philosophy is mainly interpreted in two ways: firstly (and most commonly) through the concept of Romanticism, merging his ideas with his extraordinary personality...
9 months ago
Turkey’s New Global Posture: Grand Strategy and Geopolitical Imperatives. Part II
Turkish plans for the creation of energy independence are based upon three main pillars with the use of critical sources of power...
9 months ago
Intermarium Weekly 05-11.08.2020
On August 10, the election commission updated the preliminary data on the results of voting in the presidential elections in Belarus...
9 months ago
The Coming Pacific War. Part 6. China Has a Vote, Too
According to data from the World Bank, China’s economy quadrupled in size between 2000 and 2012. Official military budgets grew even faster – from $20 billion in 2000 to $120 billion in 2013...
9 months ago
Ahead of the New Frontier. Part III. The Mare Liberum (Freedom of the Seas) from Sea to Space
The main feature of the Anglo-Saxon world is global dominance and its customary law and institutions that they dominate over the World Ocean...
9 months ago
Intermarium Weekly 29.07-04.08.2020
The political situation in Belarus is increasingly volatile, and the election process is developing in an increasingly unpredictable fashion...
9 months ago
Turkey’s New Global Posture: Grand Strategy and Geopolitical Imperatives. Part I
None of the geopolitical actors in Eurasia and beyond were ready for Turkey to come up with such ambitions and with such an omnidirectional grand strategy encompassing the whole of West Eurasia...
9 months ago
The Coming Pacific War. Part 5. Criticism
The AirSea Battle Concept is an operational concept. It does not constitute a strategy and therefore does not cover all of the aspects of a confrontation, including the method by which a final victory will be achieved in a future war with China...
9 months ago
The Coming Pacific War. Part 4: Variants of War
War Plans assume two basic scenarios for achieving a military victory over China: the direct approach and the indirect approach...
10 months ago
Britain’s China strategy dilemma
In the wild and wary aftermath of the Brexit revolution, many simply assumed that the UK would lose influence in the rest of the world...
10 months ago
Ahead of the New Frontier: from Naval Warfare Theory to Space Strategy. Part II: The Geopolitical Principles and Imperatives for a future war in Outer Space
The Persian Gulf War marked a turning point in human history in the XX century because, in some respect, it ended the Cold War. Moreover, it introduced space power as an element of contemporary warfare...
10 months ago
Ahead of the New Frontier: from Naval Warfare Theory to Space Strategy. Part I
The canon of the strategic theory is full of interesting and unique concepts that were introduced many years earlier than they were implemented in the operational models of modern warfare. However, since it first emerged as an independent field of scientific discussion, its most difficult challenge might be to develop strategic theoretical patterns and concepts for the future wars in Outer Space.
10 months ago
Intermarium Weekly 14-21.07.2020
The main features of this week are that people started to respond to violence by violence; an oppositional coalition was created; and that Lukashenka allegedly was hospitalized, but it wasn’t true...
10 months ago
The Coming Pacific War. Part 3: Basing
The United States Pacific Command (PACOM) has in its care 169 million square kilometres of the area of Asia and the Pacific, encompassing 50% of the world’s population...
10 months ago
On the necessity to include climate considerations in long-term security and strategy planning
Regardless of whether the ongoing changes in the world’s climate are man-induced, the reality of their occurrence is a fact...
10 months ago
The Baltic States defensibility (Podcast)
Jacek Bartosiak and Albert Świdziński discussing the Baltic States defensibility after the terrain tour in July 2020...
10 months ago
The Coming Pacific War. Part 2. Situational Awareness
The most important task will be to maintain combat situational awareness, i.e. tracking, detection, communication, control & command, cyber domain, target acquisition and post-combat damage assessment.
10 months ago
The Coming Pacific War. Part 1. How to kick the door to the Chinese Bar
The US and China may go to war in the Pacific, soon. As of 2020 the chance of that happening is increasingly significant. Both began preparations for that long ago...
10 months ago
Intermarium Weekly 23-30.06.2020
The situation in Belarus is not as desperate as it appeared last week because both sides are now at the stage of preparations for the final struggle...
10 months ago
The Thucydides trap and a security dilemma. Part 2
It is important to think carefully about how to draw the right conclusions from past mistakes. Given the growing competition between the United States and China...
11 months ago
Hannah Arendt “On Revolution”. Book review
Hannah Arendt is quite a popular theoretician in universities of the West, well known for her development of the theory of Totalitarianism. Her intellectual interests were based upon the main problems of the XX century...
11 months ago
Intermarium Weekly 17-23.06.2020
The political situation in Belarus is changing dramatically and dynamic events are underway, therefore it is worth undertaking a more detailed analysis of the situation in the country...
11 months ago
The Thucydides trap and a security dilemma. Part 1
After the publication of Graham Allison's book about the upcoming US war with China, the concept of the “Thucydides trap” was often used...
11 months ago
Fort Trump featuring the rest of the World
Back in 2018, the idea of Fort Trump was floated by the Polish President Andrzej Duda, with the implicit hope of making the presence of US assets permanent...
11 months ago
The Revolution in the Drone Warfare: the lessons from the Idlib De-Escalation Zone. Part II
In the case of Libya, Turkey is achieving its geopolitical goals astonishingly successfully, in the same way as in Syria. The presence of drones does not resemble the presence of military forces...
11 months ago
Heading for outer space. Part 4. The Polyglobal Competition of Powers
There are different concepts to solve the problem of the lack of an international regime. Although space powers would not necessarily sign up to a regime in the context proposed in the system, seeing how a similar solution works in the Convention on the Law of the Sea, this does not mean that other solutions are not being sought.
11 months ago
Heading for outer space. Part 3: Space resources
Gold rush - this is a term that’s increasingly used in the media in the context of space. Mention is made of a new Wild West and a space race in which not only prestige is at stake...
11 months ago
Democracy versus Meritocracy
When Alfred T. Mahan was prophesying the rise of China back in 1897, he talked about modern European civilisation having grown up “under the shadow of the Cross”...
11 months ago
Australia in the US-China confrontation – Jacek Bartosiak and Hugh White (Podcast)
Jacek Bartosiak is talking to Hugh White on the choice of Australia in the US-China confrontation and...
11 months ago
US grand strategy towards China and Eurasia (Podcast)
Jacek Bartosiak is talking to Jakub Grygiel on the current US grand strategy towards China and greater Eurasia.
11 months ago
Multi Domain Battle
The goal of Americans in the coming years will be to maintain the ability to project power in all areas in which China and Russia - in the face of the current world system - are trying to push back against the interests of the US...
12 months ago
China-American Informational “Biological” Warfare: From “Yellow Peril” to “Chinese Virus”. Part 2
The globe is facing an unprecedented challenge which has its own name “COVID-19” and which definitely emanates a direct threat to humanity as a biological factor...
12 months ago
The independence test of a medium-sized power
In his essay “Without America. Australia in the New Asia” published Autumn 2017, Hugh White describes what would happen if Donald Trump called the Australian Prime Minister suddenly...
12 months ago
China-American Informational “Biological” Warfare: From “Yellow Peril” to “Chinese Virus”. Part 1
The globe is facing an unprecedented challenge which has its own name “COVID-19” and which definitely emanates a direct threat to humanity as a biological factor...
12 months ago
Heading for Outer Space. Part 2: Topography
The legendary German military strategist Helmuth von Moltke was known for not seeing the river, the forest, the field and the hills, but the “terrain"...
12 months ago
As oil prices fall, US-Saudi relations continue to sour
The US is planning to “fundamentally, not only reevaluate, but take actions that will start to undermine the long term relationship” with the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA)...
1 year ago
Brothers Karamazov as a geopolitical novel
The River Polist has its source at Lake Polisto in the western part of the Valdai Hills (about 400 km east of Riga). It becomes navigable at Staraya Russa...
1 year ago
AI, Big data, 5G. David P. Goldman on the US – China rivalry (Podcast)
David P. Goldman on the potential future scenarios for the China – US rivalry, and the domains where this rivalry be decided.
1 year ago
Heading for Outer Space. Case for Astropolitics. Part 1
The Covid-19 pandemic will eventually pass. Earlier it will change the world, having ploughed global value chains and inevitably changed the principles of globalisation of the last 30 years...
1 year ago
Ukraine’s postmodern Presidency and the strategic importance of “nation branding”
Perhaps it’s to do with owning and operating the biggest airplane in the world; perhaps it’s to do with the self-deprecating actor-turned-President...
1 year ago
Intermarium Weekly 22-29.04.2020
Eastern Europe is gradually and very carefully returning to normal life. COVID-19 is still the most important issue in all countries of the region. Many are planning to coordinate the process of reopening borders. However, many other interesting events have occurred...
1 year ago
Chaos and Control on the Eurasian Steppe
To really comprehend the vastness of the Eurasian steppe and the ways of the societies that have long inhabited it, we need to think in terms of the cultural importance of horsemanship...
1 year ago
The world order change – Jacek Bartosiak and George Friedman (Podcast)
Jacek Bartosiak is talking to George Friedman on the impact on Covid on the world order, US and China competition, future of Europe and Poland.
1 year ago
Europe – the place from which the world was made. Epidemics, wars and an eternal desire for unfulfilled consolidation. Part 3
Within the continent, France was most advantageously situated, due to the location of the Alps, which "end" on France’s eastern border...
1 year ago
From Lisbon to Vladivostok via Tiraspol
I believe that what [the Russians] want to do is maintain situations of strategic geographic instability on their flanks, to their benefit …
1 year ago
Arthur Herman. “1917. Lenin, Wilson and the Birth of the New World Disorder”. Book review
Arthur L. Herman (1956) is an American historian and senior fellow at the Hundson Institute. This book is his latest piece published in 2017.
1 year ago
Florence and the Machine Age
Yea, though I walk through the valley of the shadow of death, I will fear no evil: for thou art with me; thy rod and thy staff they comfort me.
- Psalm 23, Line 4
1 year ago
Intermarium Weekly 09-15.04.2020
The peoples and nations of Central and Eastern Europe are learning to live in the new conditions with Covid-19 pandemia spreading. Getting used to a new way of life is happening now. The way everything is going to end up is still uncertain.
1 year ago
Europe – the place from which the world was made. Epidemics, wars and an eternal desire for unfulfilled consolidation. Part 2
Beyond the Greek times facing the East and the Aegean and Black Seas, Europe's geostrategic history begins with Rome...
1 year ago
Chess and Geopolitics
Typically I find that those who like to view the world through a prism of the unevenness of geography have very little time for chess, with its flat board and what game theorists and economists might call its “perfect information”...
1 year ago
Europe – the place from which the world was made. Epidemics, wars and an eternal desire for unfulfilled consolidation. Part 1
The modern world and its order come from Europe. This is where the enlightenment and the industrial revolution were born, hence it was the Europeans who set out to colonise the world...
1 year ago
Intermarium Weekly 25.03-01.04.2020
Everywhere is the same now - people are isolated without any idea what lies in store for them next. The future will depend on how deep the medical crisis (evolving gradually into a social and an economic crisis) turns out to be...
1 year ago
Mackinder. Part 3
Mackinder predicted that there were three powers that were capable of conquering the World Island – i.e. Eurasia – the place where history is made...
1 year ago
A stay-at-home parent’s attempt to understand the world in 2020
The “invisible enemy” is forcing us to engage differently with the world: as producers, as consumers, as believers and non-believers, as friends, as family...
1 year ago
Mackinder. Part 2
The Polish thread is very important in Mackinder's work. The British geopolitician had to think a lot about observations from the above-mentioned political mission at Denikin's staff and talks with the most important Polish politicians. Thanks to this, Mackinder came to an independent opinion about Poland's political and military situation and its difficult geopolitical dilemmas...
1 year ago
The painful reality of strategic flows, and a history lesson
The current epidemiological situation shows the tangible reality of the impact the flow of people and goods makes on our lives...
1 year ago
An Eschatology of the Coronavirus: The New “Brave” World Ahead of Us All
There is now a need to find, if possible, some model which can explain to the billions of people around the world where we are, where we’re headed and what kind social and political order might emerge from the ashes of the current crisis...
1 year ago
Half a year which may prove crucial for Ukraine’s integration with NATO
The Ukrainian Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal at a recent press conference - one of the first after the forming of the new government - said that Ukraine is entering a global economic crisis.
1 year ago
Mackinder. Part 1
Whilst reflecting on Europe, the Intermarium and Poland, the figure and the achievements of Halford Mackinder - a British geographer and geopolitician - must stay with us for a little longer and in more detail...
1 year ago
The Nuclear Taboo
For most of the 45 years of the Cold War, as a rule, there was a bipolar system and bipolar nuclear rivalry between the United States and the Soviet Union...
1 year ago
Land-based Deterrence Systems
As Poland’s conventional deterrence doctrine will be taking shape in the coming years, surface-to-surface missile systems will provide (varying) capability to influence the course and outcome of armed confrontation in both strategic and operational dimensions.
1 year ago
Russians on the revision of the Piłsudski-Giedroyc doctrine, or the renewed Polish imperialism
Experts of Russian Regnum Agency has been recently debating the issue of Polish-Russian competition for influence in Central & Eastern Europe, in particular in the "buffer zone" countries separating Poland and Russia, namely Belarus and Ukraine.
1 year ago
The nature of the Eastern Question for Russia in the XXI century
Relations between Turkey and Russia have typically been the most dramatic between any two nations in European history. They have an omnidimensional nature and at the same time they are almost never peaceful.
1 year ago
Davor Marijan “STORM” (2010)
In terms of military strategy and theory of warfare on the European continent, the post-Cold War period has had one specific feature. Namely, it has typically been a fight between unequal forces...
1 year ago
Town of Raczki – on the way to the famed Suwałki Gap at NATO Eastern Flank
On the eighth day of the war, the 7th Brigade approached the small town of Braniewo at night. The 9th Armoured Cavalry Brigade and the 20th Mechanised Brigade made convergent attacks on Kaliningrad...
1 year ago
Crimea is facing water shortages: the geopolitical angle
In Crimea, people together with Orthodox priests are praying for rains and snow because throughout the last six months there was no rain during autumn, winter has been dry, and the reservoirs are almost empty. Journalists are forecasting apocalyptic scenarios for Crimea, including drought. In Simferopol, the authorities are gradually introducing a regime of limited water supply.
1 year ago
Intermarium Weekly 24-29.02.2020
There is a great deal of popular anxiety throughout the countries of the Intermarium concerning the threat of the Coronavirus, which seems to be gradually encircling and surrounding the region...
1 year ago
Raczki Crossing in Suwalki Gap, NATO Eastern Flank, Military Analysis (Video)
Jacek Bartosiak explains the importance of the town of Raczki and the river crossing on the way to the Suwalki Gap at NATO Eastern Flank...
1 year ago
The Concert of Powers at the Opera House in Lviv
The concept of a "New Concert of Great Powers" is increasingly cited as an analogy to the nineteenth-century balance of powers, which was established to “ensure security and peace” in Europe after the conflagration of the Napoleonic wars. Now, none of the nations of Europe is strong enough to be able to play first violin in the potential new concert of powers - should such emerge...
1 year ago
The Time to Review Poland’s Grand Strategy in the East – is now. Part 2
Along with the statements of French President Macron, as well as many other politicians and strategists in the West - which testify to the faltering unity of the West and posit for the need to build a "new order" in Europe - Poland should revise its policy of "strategic restraint" in the East conducted so far for the justified sake of the cohesion of the West, and somewhat contrary to the logic of our geopolitical location for 30 years.
1 year ago
Intermarium Weekly 17-23.02.2020
The head of the Duma Committee on Defense, Vladimir Shamanov, said that Russia would conduct operational measures in response to the next large-scale NATO exercises near the borders of the Russian Federation...
1 year ago
The Polish Strategic View of Belarus
The dissolution of the Soviet Union left Russia with a strategic problem. For centuries, Russian national security had depended on a buffer that would serve to increase the difficulty of invading Russia. After the collapse, this buffer dissolved into its historicalnations – the Baltics, Belarus and Ukraine.
1 year ago
Time To Review Poland’s Grand Strategy in the East Giedroyć – Mieroszewski Doctrine – Is Now. Part 1
Juliusz Mieroszewski and Jerzy Giedroyć, remaining in exile in the West after the last world war, formulated a geopolitical doctrine which contained a simple maxim: "there can be no free Poland without a free Lithuania, Belarus and Ukraine."
1 year ago
Intermarium Weekly 10-16.02.2020
In our opening statement, that we have published last summer, we articulated our desire to share with our subscribers the Central & Eastern European (aka Intermarium) perspective on world affairs
1 year ago
S&F Hero: America in Eurasia. Part 4
Since President Bush Senior’s presidency in 1991, the Americans have sought to counter the natural trends of multipolarity in Eurasia, fearing the instability and polarisation that were the bane of earlier periods and led to domination wars. Therefore, US military constituted for the post-Cold War world an ultima ratio regum...
1 year ago
Intermarium Weekly 01-07.02.2020
Last week brought a slew of diplomatic activity in the Eastern Europe. Mike Pompeo visited in Minsk and while there promised to cover all of Belarus’ oil demand. In Ukraine, Turkish President Recep Erdogan tightened Ankara’s relations with Ukraine and its new President Vladimir Zelensky against the Russian Federation as retaliation for Russian actions in Syria against rebels in Idlib...
1 year ago
Macron visits Poland, France revisits the old balancing game.
On Monday February 2nd, a plane carrying French President Emmanuel Macron touched down in Warsaw, marking the first time he had visited Poland since he was elected nearly three years ago.
1 year ago
S&F Hero: America in Eurasia. Part 3
While the post-Cold War golden time has come to an end, it must be remembered that the implementation of Washington's goals was explicitly laid out in what can be seen as a kind of Magna Carta for the grand strategy of the US after the Cold War - the 1992 Defense Planning Guidance...
1 year ago
US extended nuclear deterrence in the post-INF world (Podcast)
COO of New Generation Warfare Center Greg Melcher discusses the technological, political and military landscape of the post-INF Treaty world, nuclear deterrence capabilities of the United States, and...
1 year ago
Intermarium Weekly 27.01-02.02.2020
Pompeo travels to Kiev and Minsk; Germany and Turkey seek closer economic ties with Ukraine; Moldova slowly re-orientates itself towards the East. Minsk unexpectedly orders a comprehensive combat readiness of the Armed Forces of Belarus, and an answer to the Collective Security Treaty Organization under the leadership of Russia preparing own its exercises in Belarus.
1 year ago
Belarus, the perennial borderland
Ever since Belarus emerged as a sovereign state from the chaotic period of the early 1990s, it has seldom caught the eye of western – and, lamentably, eastern – analysts...
1 year ago
What Are the A2AD (Anti-Access/Area Denial) Capabilities All About?
A2/AD stands for Anti-Access/Area Denial and has become an increasingly popular term in military circles over recent years. It’s a concept that refers to the military and technological measures...
1 year ago
S&F Hero: America in Eurasia. Part 2
In the first years of the post-Cold War period, the Americans sought to spread the principles of the Washington Consensus, which concerned the recommendations of the International Monetary Fund and...
1 year ago
Greg Melcher on logistic and military challenges awaiting NATO’s Eastern Flank (Podcast)
COO of New Generation Warfare Center Greg Melcher describes the logistical, military and force posture challenges awaiting NATO forces on it's Eastern Flank...
1 year ago
Intermarium Weekly 18-24.01.2020
In our opening statement, that we have published last summer, we articulated our desire to share with our subscribers the Central & Eastern European (aka Intermarium) perspective on world affairs
1 year ago
Putin in the Near and Middle East: assessments, outcomes and consequences
The first global geopolitical events 2020 were rapid and alarming. The consequences for the entire year are still unknown. Last week, the world was occupied with the Middle East - the events were happening so fast and unpredictable, that nobody knew what would come next and many expected the worst scenarios...
1 year ago
S&F Hero: America in Eurasia. Part 1
Power and the credibility that arises from power are the currency in international relations. It’s a brutal truth perfectly illustrated by the history of the entire 20th century and the position gained by the United States over the past century and at the beginning of the present century...
1 year ago
The Syrian express and a Mediterranean smoking chimney: The Russian fleet in the Mediterranean
In August 2008, Russia invaded Georgia. In its wake, the US Navy demonstrated its overwhelming land-attack capabilities in the Black Sea. It was supported by other NATO countries by sending ships through the Bosporus, which in fact frightened Russian decision-makers...
1 year ago
Intermarium Weekly
In the opening statement at Strategy&Future we articulated last summer the desire to share with our subscribers the Central & Eastern European aka European Intermarium perspective on world affairs, permanently influenced by the fluid balance of power in Eurasia and elsewhere in an increasingly volatile and fragile security environment that badly needs to be understood, not only by political and military leaders but also by individuals and business leaders...
1 year ago
An interview with Rt Hon Julian Lewis
Julian Lewis, Chair of the Defence Select Committee of the House of Commons, on the increasingly tight integration of the Royal Navy and the US Navy, role of the United Kingdom's military in...
1 year ago
Storm Brewing in the Former Grand Duchy of Lithuania, i.e. Seminal Developments in Belarus
Interesting, and perhaps slightly surprising, because China - contrary to Russia - has decided in the last phase of the unification negotiations to support Belarus's position...
1 year ago
Poland’s Eastern Buffer Zone
Regardless of cultural and civilizational differences, Poland’s grand strategy viewed Russia as the landlocked continental power, whose core area was surrounded by five external powers...
1 year ago
Russia’s New Model Army. Part 2
Despite - and perhaps precisely - because of the revolutionary nature and the momentum of change, the reform has not been fully completed...
1 year ago
Turkish Middle Eastern Strategy: Geopolitical Implications for Libya and Eastern Mediterranean
The West is witnessing a new challenger in the Middle East that does not comply itself with the traditional Western hegemony to the region that had been lasting for decades...
1 year ago
Russian hybrid war – what is it all about?
We often hear about the Russian hybrid war, or using a more professional term - the next generation warfare. What exactly does this mean? It's time to clearly explain to Strategy&Future readers.
1 year ago
Russian New Model Army. Part 1
„Russia has only two allies: the army and the fleet” - Tsar Alexander III.
1 year ago
S&F Hero: The Grand Strategy of Poland. Part 3
The formula of American alliances is changing. NATO from the collective model is transforming in Europe into a set of bilateral or group mutual assistance, assurance and...
1 year ago
Americans have always thought in terms of geography: The Purchase of Louisiana
True, geography, or more broadly speaking, geopolitics - understood as the deployment of resources across space, using pivotal areas, points of strength and transport corridors - is not the only factor that defines the way states (and more specifically the leaders of states) behave...
1 year ago
NATO and US Conventional deterrence in CEE (Podcast)
Jacek Bartosiak and Albert Świdziński discuss the Polish – and Eastern European – perspective on US and NATO...
1 year ago
S&F Hero: A Cursed dualism and the Nobel prize for Olga Tokarczuk
An intense bout of discussion started in Poland after Olga Tokarczuk was awarded the Nobel Prize for Literature. This essentially boils down to the issue of dealing with understanding who we are and where we live...
1 year ago
Russia’s Gamble
Any position Russia takes in the Northern European Plain is not to calm the Russians...
1 year ago
S&F Hero: The Grand Strategy of Poland. Part 2
To survive (preferably in peacetime conditions), and then when the dust settles - to take the best possible place in the global division of labour...
1 year ago
What Is Power Projection All About
The term "power projection", often used in the language of military, geopolitics or geostrategy, is derived from the field of operational and strategic art, and...
1 year ago
Implications of U.S and NATO nuclear policies for the Eastern Flank countries (Podcast)
Extended nuclear deterrence, nuclear sharing - or what allied commitments the Eastern Flank needs to feel secure...
1 year ago
S&F Hero: Poland’s Grand Strategy: Response to Pence’s Fourteen Points. Part 1
Have respect unto the covenant; for the dark places of the earth are full of the dwellings of violence...
1 year ago
Dear Reader,
In the very first article we have published I presented you with our mission statement. Back then I wrote the following words:
1 year ago
S&F Hero: Europe: an Empire on its Knees
"If we cease to rule others we are in danger of being ruled ourselves."
1 year ago
S&F Hero: Strategic risk for Warsaw
The Francis Fukuyama’s optimistic vision of the end of history as defined in early nineties of the XX-th century was to bring to the nations the long-desired...
1 year ago
Air-Land Battle Concept
The brain behind the victorious Cold War operational Air-Land Battle Concept was General Donn A. Starry, who commanded the US Army Training and Doctrine Command between...
1 year ago
From Medyka to Rotterdam and back
They say that travel broadens the mind. Today, in the era of cheap flights, open borders and ubiquitous Internet, this saying takes on a special meaning...
1 year ago
“Tournament of shadows” by Elżbieta Cherezińska
"Sooner or later all roads lead east"...
2 years ago
The Revolution in Military Affairs and the Soviet reconnaissance-strike complex
In recent years, the notion of the Revolution in Military Affairs has been a sensation as a new stage in the way war is conducted. Something extremely important is at hand, so I decided that it would be necessary to...
2 years ago
Ian Brzeziński on the US-China rivalry, NATO and Poland
In his conversation with S&F founder and CEO Jacek Bartosiak, Ian Brzeziński weighs in on the China – US rivalry and...
2 years ago
S&F Hero: The Eastern Part of the Polish War Theatre
The Polish War Theatre covers the area from the Oder basin in the west to the Dnieper and Daugava (Dźwina) basins in the east. This area consists of several of the distinct geographies, that is...
2 years ago
“Geopolitics has never been obsolete” – Shafqat Ali Khan at Strategy&Future
Albert Świdzinski converses with Mr. Shafqat Ali Khan, Ambassador of Pakistan to Poland, on geopolitics, Poland, Pakistan, future of Eurasia and...
2 years ago
Mahan’s Next 100 Years
Alfred T. Mahan remembered mainly as a brilliant proponent and pioneer of modern naval strategy - also drew upon a deep understanding of world history to make some eerily accurate guesses at what the future might hold. This feels like a good time to look back on some of the predictions he made...
2 years ago
S&F Hero: Who We Are and Where Our Place Is
The Baltic Sea "turns" near the mouths of the Vistula and the Niemen to the north at the very length in which the Black Sea as the most distant outlet of the Mediterranean Sea...
2 years ago
The Geopolitical Antiquities
Ancient history seems to be an inexhaustible source of examples for all areas of human life. This is especially true of politics...
2 years ago
Prof. Hugh White on the US-China rivalry and Australia’s tough choices
Professor Hugh White speaks with S&F’s Albert Świdziński on the future of international order in Eastern Asia, dilemmas and hard choices awaiting Australia, and...
2 years ago
Smolensk Gate and the Golan Heights
The Polish theatre of war can be broken down into separate operational areas.
2 years ago
Russian Strategy towards the Turkish Straits. Part 2
The Montreux Convention deeply undermined the Soviets’ ambitions in the second half of the XX century, when the priorities had changed and the Soviet assets had to cope with...
2 years ago
WARSAW SECURITY FORUM, 2-3 October 2019
Is China a Threat to the Liberal International Order?
2 years ago
Journey to a forgotten place: Czesław Miłosz’s “The Issa Valley”
Lithuania. A unique place in Polish cultural awareness...
2 years ago
Russian Strategy towards the Turkish Straits. Part 1
If we assume that Russia had any geopolitical obsession, consequently we would not be able to find many of them that have survived throughout the centuries of Russia’s imperial rise.
2 years ago
The Status Game
Contrary to what voters or the average Smiths often think, political leaders are not free actors in their actions...
2 years ago
Football is the key to Africa
Africa is experiencing the demographic boom. The human talent is the greatest resource available to humankind. In 21. century the African continent will become...
2 years ago
Congo
Years ago, as a young boy playing with bottle caps in the yard, I really liked this uniquely original bottle among others, with a green flag and a hand holding a torch...
2 years ago
Strategic Policy and Economy
Why is it that some countries are rich and have importance in the world, whilst others are poor and irrelevant?
2 years ago
Braniewo At the Frontier
8th August 2019 - in the early hours of the morning, I stood in Braniewo at ul. Zielona 25...
2 years ago
How Japan planned to win the Pacific War
- seen through the eyes of an intelligence officer of the Japanese fleet
2 years ago
S&F Hero: 5G, geopolitics and Crowe Memorandum. Part 1: Technology
Ceterum censeo Huawei esse delendam – whether he knew it or not, this was the message that Steve Bannon...
2 years ago
A Brief History of Wargaming
From the German Kriegsspiel to the Contemporary Era of Great Power Competition.
2 years ago
S&F Hero: Strategic flows
There is only one god – Poseidon – god of the sea; there is only one legitimate church confessing this god...
2 years ago
